Question: What types of condos sell in the winter versus the summer in Mammoth?
Answer: Good question. I have always felt like buyer interest is focused on condos near the ski slopes in the fall and winter and then shifts down towards town and the meadow in the summer. To support my theory, I looked at the sales data for all 3,916 condos sold in Mammoth in the last 10 years. I graphed their location by what month of the year they closed escrow and found some interesting results:
Overall, the three most popular months for closed escrows on condos are October, November and December (in declining order). This follows from experience; fall is always a busy selling season here in Mammoth as buyers get in the skiing mood again and try to procure a property before the ski season gets underway.
The slowest months are January, May, June and July (in declining order). January makes sense because not that many escrows start in December when there are two weeks of holidays and many condos are rented (even the ones on the market). And then early summer makes sense for being slow as the season transitions from winter to early summer, which is the 'shoulder season' here in Mammoth when there are the least amount of vacationers.
Overall, 455 condos closed escrow in October and only 264 in July during the past ten years.
SLOPESIDE Effect: Now sifting by location, I first segmented condo complexes by “slopeside” and not slopeside. I define “slopeside” as being within easy walking distance to the ski slopes or the Village gondola. Complexes like Chamonix and Juniper Springs Lodge would be slopeside and Seasons IV and Snowcreek would not be.
Slopeside condos sell mostly in the winter with October hosting 206 sales vs only 73 in July (35% of the Oct number). With non-slopeside condos, the lull is in June and was only 59% of the November peak, so while slopeside condos still outsell ones away from the slopes, the swings are not as intense.
And when I lumped individual months together into seasons, the sales away from the slopes are more steady throughout the year (sales during the lull is 71% of the high time) and the slopeside condos definitely show a stronger variance between winter (strong sales) and summer (the lull is 46% of the high tide).
So my theory is confirmed that sales are concentrated at the slopes during the late fall and early winter while interest tends to shift away from the slopes after wintertime.
RESORT CORRIDOR: I decided to look at location in another way and segment condos by “resort corridor” and non-resort corridor locations. For “resort corridor,” I include all of the above slopeside condos and throw in golf course locations (Solstice, Woodwinds) and meadow locations (Sunrise, Snowcreek) since these are along shuttle routes and do well on nightly rental programs. Non resort corridor locations are like Bigwood, Krystal Villa West/East and condos out in Old Mammoth.
The verdict is similar, with resort corridor condos selling in Oct-Dec vs. Jul-Sept at a rate of 908 to 506 (44% difference). For non-resort corridor condos, again, the swings are not as intense; the peak (Oct-Dec) outsells the lull (Apr-Jun) 342 to 221 (only a 35% difference).
Inventory in the above segments are directly affected by this seasonality. Because October to December are hot selling months, overall inventory declines throughout winter. Then in early summer, when sales slow a bit, inventory increases. Each of the last three Julys have seen condo inventory above 350 condos for sale. And each of the subsequent Decembers have seen inventories drop by at least 22%.
As a buyer, you will usually have more choices in the summer. If you are in the market to buy a condo in Mammoth and can resist the urge to buy something in the fall when you have increased competition, you might find better deals in the summer.
