What condos sell during winter vs. summer in Mammoth?

Question: What types of condos sell in the winter versus the summer in Mammoth?

Answer: Good question. I have always felt like buyer interest is focused on condos near the ski slopes in the fall and winter and then shifts down towards town and the meadow in the summer. To support my theory, I looked at the sales data for all 3,916 condos sold in Mammoth in the last 10 years. I graphed their location by what month of the year they closed escrow and found some interesting results:

Overall, the three most popular months for closed escrows on condos are October, November and December (in declining order). This follows from experience; fall is always a busy selling season here in Mammoth as buyers get in the skiing mood again and try to procure a property before the ski season gets underway.

The slowest months are January, May, June and July (in declining order). January makes sense because not that many escrows start in December when there are two weeks of holidays and many condos are rented (even the ones on the market). And then early summer makes sense for being slow as the season transitions from winter to early summer, which is the 'shoulder season' here in Mammoth when there are the least amount of vacationers.

Overall, 455 condos closed escrow in October and only 264 in July during the past ten years.

SLOPESIDE Effect: Now sifting by location, I first segmented condo complexes by “slopeside” and not slopeside. I define “slopeside” as being within easy walking distance to the ski slopes or the Village gondola. Complexes like Chamonix and Juniper Springs Lodge would be slopeside and Seasons IV and Snowcreek would not be.

Slopeside condos sell mostly in the winter with October hosting 206 sales vs only 73 in July (35% of the Oct number). With non-slopeside condos, the lull is in June and was only 59% of the November peak, so while slopeside condos still outsell ones away from the slopes, the swings are not as intense.

And when I lumped individual months together into seasons, the sales away from the slopes are more steady throughout the year (sales during the lull is 71% of the high time) and the slopeside condos definitely show a stronger variance between winter (strong sales) and summer (the lull is 46% of the high tide).

So my theory is confirmed that sales are concentrated at the slopes during the late fall and early winter while interest tends to shift away from the slopes after wintertime.

RESORT CORRIDOR: I decided to look at location in another way and segment condos by “resort corridor” and non-resort corridor locations. For “resort corridor,” I include all of the above slopeside condos and throw in golf course locations (Solstice, Woodwinds) and meadow locations (Sunrise, Snowcreek) since these are along shuttle routes and do well on nightly rental programs. Non resort corridor locations are like Bigwood, Krystal Villa West/East and condos out in Old Mammoth.

The verdict is similar, with resort corridor condos selling in Oct-Dec vs. Jul-Sept at a rate of 908 to 506 (44% difference). For non-resort corridor condos, again, the swings are not as intense; the peak (Oct-Dec) outsells the lull (Apr-Jun) 342 to 221 (only a 35% difference).

Inventory in the above segments are directly affected by this seasonality. Because October to December are hot selling months, overall inventory declines throughout winter. Then in early summer, when sales slow a bit, inventory increases. Each of the last three Julys have seen condo inventory above 350 condos for sale. And each of the subsequent Decembers have seen inventories drop by at least 22%.

As a buyer, you will usually have more choices in the summer. If you are in the market to buy a condo in Mammoth and can resist the urge to buy something in the fall when you have increased competition, you might find better deals in the summer.

If you are a seller, you may want to capitalize on the slight feeding frenzy that typically happens in fall and list your place for sale right before Labor Day. Our last two Labor Day weekends have been the kickstart of a very busy few months!

Dennis Cox & Tara Peterson

www.MammothRealtySearch.com

Mammoth Realty Group

Mammoth Lakes foreclosure inventory update

REO listings at lowest level since 2009

We have recently seen a lull in the number of foreclosure (REO) listings in Mammoth and Mono County. In most of 2009 and half of 2010, the inventory stayed below 10. Then, we hit peak inventory in the spring of 2011 at 16.

After this peak, REO inventory has steadily declined to where it is today, at only 2 bank-owned condos on the market.

Is the end in sight? Are we done with foreclosures?

Inman News reports, "The improving job market and economy is helping push mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure starts down, but the percentage of loans in the foreclosure process remains stubbornly high, especially in states most affected by robo-signing issues. ... In "judicial foreclosure" states where courts handle most foreclosures, 6.8 percent of mortgages were in foreclosure at the end of 2011. In "nonjudicial" foreclosure states where most foreclosures are processed outside of the court system, loan servicers are clearing the backlog more quickly, and 2.8 percent of mortgages were in foreclosure.

Five states accounted for more than half of all loans in foreclosure -- Florida, California, Illinois, New York and New Jersey. All but California are judicial foreclosure states."

The reasons for REO backlogs may be different in Mono county. According to our local title company report, there are still just as many homeowners behind on their payments. But more often these homeowners are able to successfully negotiate a loan modification and keep their property or they are declaring bankruptcy, both of which prevents the property from going the way of the REO. In addition, more properties are being sold as short sales, which also prevents foreclosure.

While the REO inventory during the past 3 years fluctuated between 2-8% of the entire condo inventory on the market, REO's have accounted for a higher percentage of all condo sales.

In 2009, REO sales were 17% of all sales. In 2010, that number grew slightly to 18% and then peaked in 2011 at 27%. So far in 2012, REO sales are only 14% of all sales (mostly due to the limited inventory.)

Because their pricing has been so attractive, many buyers have snapped up these types of properties. I feel that sometimes it is just the label of 'foreclosure' that creates a perception that the condo is going to be a great deal. It gets buyers' attention and many times ends up creating a bidding war. REO's have sold at 91% of their original asking price vs. 88% for regular sales but have much faster with an average days on market of 78 days vs. 163 days for regular sales.

You can always go to www.MammothLakesForeclosures.com to see the latest foreclosures on our market (including homes and vacant lots and in areas from Bishop to Bridgeport) and see if our inventory says low or rises in the next few months. -Dennis Cox & Tara Peterson

Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Update

It’s been another busy year here in Mammoth Lakes. With 2011 coming to an end, we thought it
would be a good time to give you an update.
Real
Estate: Mammoth Lakes
real estate continues to be quite active, primarily since about the spring of
2009 when the foreclosures started coming on the market. The low end of the market (condos under
$200,000 and houses under $500,000) has definitely been the hot spot. Those who didn’t leverage away their life
savings are buying, ready to buy and ready to buy more. It’s definitely a great time to buy; prices
are low, interest rates are low and the stock market is uncertain.
At times it seems as though the market is bottoming out,
but then another foreclosure hits the market to drop prices again…the good news
is that the market is definitely not plummeting anymore and, in certain
segments of the market, we actually have seen bottoming out and even a bit of
upwards correction. For example, the
average price for a 2 bedroom condo in The Village and Juniper Springs Resort
has increased from $365,000 to $410,000.
Here are some quick sales statistics from the past two
years:
Homes in 2010: 69 sales (16% short sales, 25% REOs), 42%
paid with all cash. Average price: $893,200 (7 homes sold over $1.8M).
Homes in 2011: 70 sales (10% short sales, 19% REOs) 34%
paid with all cash. Average price: $681,700.

Condos in 2010: 375 sales (15% short sales, 18% REOs),
54% paid with cash. Average price: $350,700
Condos in 2011: 295 sales (14% short sales, 27% REOs), 53%
paid with cash. average price: $299,100.

The hot buttons are still the foreclosures and now short
sales. A few years ago, less than half
of short sales would actually be approved.
Now we’re seeing most of them go through to a successful sale, given
that the buyer is patient enough. As far
as foreclosures go, it appears as though we still have a while before we’re done
with them. Those who have purchased
foreclosures or have attempted to purchase a foreclosure know that a buyer must
have their ducks in a row if they want to be the one to get the deal, as most
do end up with multiple offers if priced aggressively.
We hear people say often that “there is so much on the
market” when actually, that’s not really the case. Inventory levels are low, as compared with
the last 5 years or so. Inventory levels
typically drop during the winter season and then rise once again in the spring,
however if you compare levels now with levels from 2-3 years ago, they are
definitely lower (there are currently 175 condos on the market vs. 234 last
summer, and over 300 in the spring of 2009).
What we’ve been telling all of our clients is that
although we may not truly be “at the bottom” yet, now is a great time to buy
and ideally find just the property you want.
Even those looking to trade up are in a great position…they may be
selling one property at less than they had hoped, however if they’re purchasing
another property for a great deal they’ve actually made out with a lower tax
basis and a better property.
Although you can browse the MLS on almost any website
these days, you don’t get a totally accurate picture of what’s really
available. Within our MLS, buyers will
still see properties that are listed as “back-up” or “contingent short sales.” Back-up properties are typically in escrow
and waiting for buyers to remove contingencies.
Contingent short sales are short sales where the seller has accepted an
offer and is waiting for bank approval. It’s
important to make sure you’re getting accurate information, so don’t hesitate
to contact us for the latest info on a property.
We like to offer buyers our automated email service which
sends new and changed listings which match their criteria to their inbox so
they are well informed.
For those who definitely have to sell, the key is still
to price the property aggressively and put your best foot forward as far as
presentation goes.
Mammoth Weather:
Where is the snow!!!???? After
shattering the record last year for the most snowfall ever recorded, Mammoth is
starting this season off at the opposite end of the spectrum. That being said, Mammoth Mountain has done an
amazing job with their snowmaking to open as much of the mountain as possible. Just the other day, we skied with our
daughters over at Juniper Springs and had a great time. The weather pattern HAS given us some amazing
lake ice skating, however, which is definitely not a yearly thing. Although we’ve enjoyed the skating, it’s time
for some snow!!!!

Tara Peterson & Dennis Cox
Mammoth Realty Group
800-519-6550, 866-934-5852
visit us at www.MammothRealtySearch.com and www.MammothLakesForeclosures.com

Long time

Mammoth Lakes real estate update

Loooooooong time since our last blog! Our sincerest apologies! After a few rough years (starting in mid 2006) of dropping prices and uncertainty in the market, the Mammoth real estate market finally picked up in about the spring of 2009 and we’ve been quite busy since then! (Unlike our blog, we have been updating our REO website almost daily.)

Although prices may not be finished with their downward trend in some segments of the market, it does seem as though the “plummeting” is over. We have seen some price stabilization in certain segments of the market. Activity has been fairly consistent for the past couple of years, other than a few lulls here and there.

Supposedly, we have a couple more years of foreclosures coming our way, but the good news for Mammoth is that our foreclosures are selling as quickly as they’re listed in most cases. We’re definitely not seeing a glut of foreclosures. The foreclosures are, however, still the driving force as far as prices go.

If you’re still thinking about buying in Mammoth, it sure does seem like a good time to buy. The inventory selection is decent, interest rates are still low and prices are quite reasonable as compared with those at the peak in late 2005 and early 2006. Across the board, most of the prices that we’re seeing are back down to 2002/2003 levels, in some cases, lower.

Financing has been tough to get on many condo complexes in Mammoth because of how they look like ‘condo-hotels’ to most lenders (i.e. they have a front desk that handles nightly rentals). But our local Wells Fargo team has been approving more and more of these complexes over the last few months. So while cash had been king for the last few years, lending does seem to be getting more available.

As far as being a seller in this market, it’s all about price and presentation…buyers want it all right now. If you can price your property aggressively based on sales comps and can offer the property as turn-key as possible, then you usually have a good chance of selling.

As a very significant side note, Mammoth is in the midst of its biggest snowfall season ever recorded! The way it was dumping this past week, you would have thought it was a January/February storm! Plenty of fresh powder for all those up here already or on their way up.

Feel free to call us or email any questions you might have about the Mammoth real estate market!

Tara Peterson & Dennis Cox

Mammoth Realty Group

sierraTLC@earthlink.net & Dennis@DennisCoxRealEstate.com

Expanded Air Service to Mammoth Lakes

Fly to Mammoth from Seattle, Portland, San Jose, Reno and Los Angeles!

This news is HUGE! Last winter, Mammoth Lakes successfully resumed commercial air service (since 1998) with one flight a day to and from Los Angeles International Airport. Although Mammoth Mountain was committed to subsidizing flights, because the flights were so full they didn’t have to. With that success, a push has been made for additional flights and Horizon Air has committed to a healthy schedule of flights.

Now it’s official! We will now have daily flights to and from Seattle, Portland, Reno, San Jose, and Los Angeles (now 2 flights a day). You can click here to view the 2009/
2010 Flight schedule: http://mammothrealtysearch.com/files/images/9702/pdf/11249578680.pdf

As far as Mammoth Lakes real estate goes, we’ve definitely seen an increase in activity this spring and summer, although prices still seem to be sliding downwards. Interestingly, we’ve also seen our inventory remain about the same (about 265 condos on the market). That means that although we’ve been seeing new listings come on the market, just as many have been selling. Most recently, The Westin developer has drastically dropped their prices and is making a big push to get their residual inventory sold. If you’re looking for a great deal at The Westin, now could be the time! We also have plenty of foreclosures coming down the pipe that will continue to drive the prices for now. If you’re looking for more information on Mammoth real estate and/or foreclosures, please feel free to visit our website at www.MammothLakesForeclosures.com to see up to date information on all current foreclosure listings.

On another note, we’re seeing some bizarre weather here in Mammoth today. They’re calling for snow above 9,000 feet (haven’t ever seen it snow in August!) and we’ve already seen some hail fall. Summer should return in a couple of days so don’t worry if you’ve got plans to head up this weekend!

Tara Peterson & Dennis Cox
RE/MAX of Mammoth

P.S. Don’t forget to check out our main website at www.MammothRealtySearch.com

4th of July kicks off summer in Mammoth Lakes

Getting ready for a busy July 4th weekend here in Mammoth Lakes, California.

With the Holiday weekend approaching and the Mammoth Motorcross just finishing up, our little town is starting to buzz with the arriving crowds. The weather couldn’t be better and looks to stay that way for a while. But then again, Mammoth has always been known for its stellar weather, especially when it comes to the summer months. Events over the coming weekend include the Footloose Freedom Mile (1-mile race on the parade route), followed by our small town parade along Main St and Old Mammoth Rd, followed by a pops concert at Mammoth Creek Park and then fireworks at Crowley Lake. Tent vendors will accompany beer gardens and live music along Main Street.

Also seen this time of year are thru-hikers on the Pacific Crest Trail taking a break and stocking up are seen walking through town to stock up on supplies and take a short break before they continue north. Families are donning helmets and pulling kids on bike trailers through town. Golfers and mtn bikers are loving the greens and trails. Campers and fisherpeople are filling campsites and lining the lakes.

As far as Mammoth real estate goes, we have definitely seen an increase in activity over the past month. Typically in the springtime we see a slow down in real estate activity and an increase in inventory. Things have been a bit different this spring. Our inventory is actually down compared with the winter inventory (only 252 condos on the market now when just a few months ago there were over 300). And there were 119 condo sales in the first half of 2009 vs only 74 in the last half of 2008 (a 61% increase!).

Most buyers we are working with feel that the bottom of the market is near and have been writing offers. We are seeing multiple offers on bank-owned listings and on well-priced properties (priced very comparable to foreclosures). And a few segments of the market are showing price support for a 'bottom.' That being said, we still have more foreclosures coming down the pipe in the near future.

Even on some of the newer developer-owned inventory (i.e. The Westin and Woodwinds) the developer is taking significantly less than their asking prices. One 2-bedroom that recently sold for $600,000 was listed for $819,000. I guess you could say prices are going up since the last one sold for $540,000 (ha!). The original prices for these 2-bedrooms were in the high $800’s (starting) and up to almost $1.4 million for the premium units.

If you’re looking for a deal, now sure seems to be the time. Although none of us have a crystal ball, we do think it’s going to be a busy summer. We’ll see if we’re right!


Tara Peterson & Dennis Cox
RE/MAX of Mammoth

Mammoth Lakes Village Woes

Friday, May 01, 2009

Spring isn’t quite sure if it's ready yet to stay here in Mammoth. After another little dousing of snow last week, we were treated with a beautiful spring day last weekend and now it looks like it’s snowing up on the mountain again. For those who ventured up to Mammoth last weekend to pick up their season passes for this year, they were treated with some fresh powder. Meanwhile just down the road the fishermen are out in swarms!

It truly is a wonderful time of year here in Mammoth Lakes. We’re seeing the golf courses start to come to life after being covered in snow all winter. Mountain bike trails, especially just outside of town, are completely accessible, fishing season has begun and the skiing/boarding is still great. As far as Mammoth Lakes real estate goes, activity has been pretty consistent over the past 5-6 months and although the town is relatively quiet, we’re seeing a fair number of deals go through. Our foreclosure inventory is low right now due to the recent government moratorium on foreclosures, but we are expect to see more come on the market this summer. Be sure to visit http://www.mammothlakesforeclosures.com/ every so often to see all the current bank-owned properties listed for sale.


Unfortunately, the commercial real estate market here is still suffering. Just recently the already ghostly Village lost three more tenants (LuLu’s Restaurant, 5 Burroughs Pizza and Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory). Galerie Barjour had closed on March 28th. All have left due to the extremely high rents. The majority of the commercial space in the Village at Mammoth is currently owned by a real estate investment trust (REIT) called CNL. It’s rumored that CNL will sell and there is at least one buyer out there, but the price that CNL wants is insane, especially in the current economic climate. The good news is that “eventually” everything will work it self out, the commercial real estate in the Village will sell and the new owner will be able to offer reasonable and sustainable rents, thus giving us a thriving “village”. The question is, how long is that going to take?

Time to get out and enjoy some of that pristine mountain air here in the High Sierra!

Tara Peterson & Dennis Cox
RE/MAX of Mammoth

P.S. Don’t forget to check out our website at http://www.mammothrealtysearch.com/