- "In 2007, 278 condos sold, 22% fewer than the 358 in 2006, according to the Mammoth Lakes Multiple Listing Service." The author probably does not know that these numbers include new development that was presold two years prior (like the Westin), so scrubbing the data reveals that the decrease in sales was more like 49% from '06 to '07. Buyers have really pulled the reins on buying and are waiting for the 'bottom' of the market, which no one can predict. We think it is better to buy now, slightly before the bottom, when depreciation is slower, than during the rebound when the appreciation rate is typically steeper.
- "The mortgage meltdown has exacerbated the vacation-home slowdown. Owners tend to sell second homes before shedding their principal ones when the going gets rough financially, so resorts have more inventory than usual." This may be true with other resorts, but Mammoth property owners tend to be stronger financially (coming in with larger down payments, 1031 Exchange money or all cash) and hold on to their properties for longer rather than selling. That being said, the few owners who are in financial trouble have starkly lowered asking prices, making it easier to see what the good deals are. Our inventory has doubled since the peak of the market in late '05/early '06, but our population of properties has also increased in that time with the Westin, Lodges, Stonegate and other new projects.
- "He attributes the [long term rental market] slowdown to the state's economic turbulence." We attribute it to the massive exodus of construction workers who have been in Mammoth building the Intrawest projects for the last handful of years and to the increase in affordable housing projects that our town has built in the last few years. If anything, any local economic turbulence would tend to help the long term rental market as would-be buyers rent instead of buy and troubled sellers who dump their properties now have to rent.
- "On the brighter side, nightly rentals are up 40% from last year" Well, yes, because last year we had 231" of snow and this year we already have 331". But are rentals up over the big winters of 04/05 and 05/06? We are snow farmers up here and last year's 'crop' was well below average.
- "The airport could draw a big range of folks to Mammoth...beyond the drivers' market from Southern California." This, we agree with. With the Westin coming online a few months ago, we are already getting visitors from the east coast who are using their Starwood points and checking out Mammoth. As long as marketing is done appropriately and intelligently when the flights start to happen (i.e. we don't want to mislead people into thinking Mammoth is anything like Aspen/Vail), I think we can attract visitors who normally might fly to Colorado resorts. It will also make Mammoth that much more accessible for Europeans who have already found Mammoth to be worth the trek overseas (typically arriving via LAX or Reno and then having a 3-6 hour car/bus ride)
- Ritz-Carlton: The sales team needs to get 60 units into escrow by mid-May in order to begin building the project - it will be interesting to see if they can pre-sell enough units at the prices that they are asking.
- Summer is not "the slowest time of the market" here. We have slightly more visitors in summer than we do in winter and we typically sell more real estate than in winter.
In summary, sales of Mammoth real estate is slow, but opportunities exist. I just helped a couple with 2 young ski-age kids get into their first vacation home on their middle income salaries. They paid 25% less than the neighboring condo that sold at the peak. They are okay with a possible initial slide in value because they are buying for the long term and for the memories they will create with their kids that will last a lifetime. -DC & TP
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